The analysis on this webpage is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 since that was the year the two-point conversion principle was released. Besides sample size variant, I also had to make assumptions about how stage spreads were created on teaser cards. To save time, rather than assessing all 12 known kinds of parlay cards, I analyzed five different types. To obtain an understanding of how extra points affect the probability of winning, I created my Wizard Teaser Equation.
The reader should assume there’s some margin of error on any statistic about the probability of winning and anticipated return anywhere on this site. In the end of the afternoon, sports are ultimately played with human beings, not figures, so take some predictions of future outcome, based on past outcomes, with a grain of salt.
Away from the Board Teasers
«Off the Board» (OTB) teasers are based on the current point spreads off the gambling board at the time of their bet. No card is filled out. Instead, the bettor tells the author the amount of legs in the teaser, number of further points on each leg, so the bet amounts he wishes to parlay, and the amount of the wager. By way of instance, the bettor might state,»Three-team, 6-point NFL teaser on 213, 218 and 224 for $100.»
The bettor may choose to receive 6, 6.5 or 7 additional points on each leg of this teaser. Naturally, the more points the bettor requires, the less he stands to win. Winning odds differ from place to place, so please refer to my own pay tables for whom pays the best odds. But for the idle readers out there, Jerry’s Nugget gets the very best OTB teaser chances for the number of legs and points.
Following is my personal analysis of 6-point, 6.5-point, and 7-point teasers.
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